Demystifying the Golden Land: Why Bangladesh Must Understand Myanmar and the Arakan Factor

 Major General Md Mostafizur Rahman, SUP, ndc, hdmc, afwc, psc, PhD (Retd.)

Adjunct Professor, Military Institute of Science and Technology (MIST) Dhaka, Army Institute of Business Administration  (AIBA), Savar.

Bangladesh’s foreign policy and strategic discourse have naturally focused on issues that most directly affect our national interests—regional connectivity, economic development, maritime security, water resources, trade and relations with major neighbours. Yet in the process, one important neighbour has often remained outside our mainstream strategic thinking: Myanmar.

This is surprising because Bangladesh and Myanmar share not only a border but also centuries of historical interaction. Trade, migration and cultural exchanges linked Bengal and Arakan long before the emergence of modern nation-states. Even after independence, formal and informal exchanges continued across the frontier.

Over the years, however, Myanmar gradually became one of the least understood countries in Bangladesh’s strategic landscape. Public discussion tends to focus on crises—the Forcefully Displaced Myanmar National (FDMN) issue, border tensions, narcotics trafficking or regional instability—rather than on Myanmar’s society, history, ethnic diversity and political evolution.

Today, that knowledge gap has become a strategic challenge. Developments inside Myanmar increasingly influence Bangladesh’s security, economy and diplomatic interests. Understanding our eastern neighbour is no longer optional; it is essential.

The Emergence of the Arakan Factor

For decades, Bangladesh dealt with Myanmar primarily through engagement with the central government. That framework is now being tested by rapidly changing realities on the ground.

The political and military landscape in Myanmar has undergone dramatic changes in recent years. In Rakhine State, also known historically as Arakan, the United League of Arakan (ULA) and its military wing, the Arakan Army (AA), have emerged as influential actors controlling significant territory and shaping local realities.

For Bangladesh, this development has important implications. The eastern frontier can no longer be viewed solely through the lens of state-to-state diplomacy. Border management, humanitarian concerns, security cooperation and future stability increasingly depend on developments within Arakan itself.

Recognizing this reality is not a matter of political preference; it is a matter of strategic understanding. Bangladesh must continue to maintain formal relations with Myanmar through established diplomatic channels. At the same time, policymakers must acknowledge that the situation along the frontier is becoming more complex and requires a deeper understanding of local dynamics.

The emergence of the Arakan factor has effectively transformed Bangladesh’s eastern border from a conventional boundary-management issue into a broader challenge involving security, humanitarian concerns and regional geopolitics.

The FDMN Crisis and the Need for Realism

No issue demonstrates this transformation more clearly than the humanitarian commitment shown by the government and people of Bangladesh, which has earned international respect. Yet the prolonged nature of the crisis has also imposed significant economic, environmental, and social costs.

The central question remains unchanged: what is the realistic path forward?

Bangladesh cannot rely indefinitely on temporary arrangements. History shows that prolonged displacement often becomes increasingly difficult to reverse. What begins as a temporary humanitarian response can gradually evolve into a long-term reality.

The only durable solution remains the safe, voluntary, dignified and sustainable return of the FDMNs to Myanmar. However, achieving this objective requires a realistic assessment of conditions inside Rakhine State.

Repatriation will ultimately depend on security, livelihoods, mobility, rights and social coexistence within the areas where the FDMNs are expected to return. Those realities will be shaped on the ground in Arakan, not merely through diplomatic statements issued from distant capitals.

This does not mean abandoning diplomatic efforts. Rather, it means aligning policy with realities. Bangladesh’s FDMN strategy and its understanding of developments in Arakan are increasingly interconnected. Any meaningful progress toward repatriation will require a clear understanding of the evolving situation inside Rakhine State.

Building a Comprehensive Bangladesh Strategy

Bangladesh now requires a broader and more sophisticated approach to Myanmar—one that combines diplomacy, security and knowledge.

At the diplomatic level, Bangladesh must continue constructive engagement with Myanmar while remaining attentive to changing realities along the frontier. Effective diplomacy requires both adherence to international norms and an accurate understanding of developments on the ground.

At the security level, the eastern border presents growing challenges. Narcotics trafficking, human trafficking, arms smuggling and other forms of transnational crime threaten stability on both sides of the frontier. Effective communication, confidence-building measures and crisis-management mechanisms are therefore essential. Minor incidents involving fishermen, refugees or border communities should never be allowed to escalate into larger security concerns.

Equally important is the societal and intellectual dimension. Bangladesh needs far greater investment in understanding Myanmar. Our universities, think tanks, research institutions and professional academies should encourage the study of Myanmar’s history, language, society, economy and ethnic politics.

We have developed considerable expertise regarding many regions of the world, yet comparatively little about a country that directly affects our national interests. A nation cannot formulate effective policy toward a neighbour it barely understands. Knowledge reduces uncertainty, expands policy options and strengthens strategic decision-making.

From a Frontier of Crisis to a Frontier of Opportunity

The story of Bangladesh’s eastern frontier does not have to be defined solely by conflict and crisis.

Arakan occupies a strategically important position on the Bay of Bengal and sits at the intersection of South and Southeast Asia. As regional connectivity, maritime trade and economic integration continue to expand, the significance of this region is likely to increase.

Naf River is the only river that is shared between Myanmar and Bangladesh.

A stable and prosperous Arakan could contribute to greater connectivity, legal trade, economic cooperation and regional development. An unstable Arakan, on the other hand, risks perpetuating refugee flows, criminal activity and humanitarian crises that directly affect Bangladesh.

For this reason, Bangladesh has a legitimate interest in the emergence of a peaceful, stable and inclusive Rakhine State. This is not a question of interference in another country’s internal affairs. It is simply recognition that developments across our border have direct consequences for our own security and prosperity.

The first step toward effective policy is understanding. For too long, Myanmar has remained one of the least understood countries in Bangladesh’s strategic discourse. The emergence of the Arakan factor has made that knowledge deficit increasingly costly.

Bangladesh has invested significant effort in understanding many dimensions of its regional environment. The time has come to devote similar attention to our eastern neighbour.

Demystifying Myanmar is no longer merely an academic exercise. It is a strategic necessity for Bangladesh’s future.